The Challenge for the Fuels of the Future

Despite the many regulatory, operational and practical hurdles to be overcome, green methanol, ammonia and hydrogen are all seen as promising (non fossil) fuels for the future of shipping.

Earlier this year, the Greek Shipowner Avin International took delivery of the 156,700 tonnes DWT Suezmax tanker Kriti Future, having the world’s first ammonia powered main engine. While currently running on conventional fuel she is classed by ABS as Ammonia Ready Level 1. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto and AngloEastern have joined a consortium of 34 companies formed by Itochu to build a Newcastlemax bulk carrier having similar dual fuel engines. It is also known that China is working on the design of ammonia powered container ships.

There seems little doubt that the technologies required to operate ships on green methanol, ammonia or hydrogen will emerge, the major challenges being:

• Fuel supply
• The lack of a regulatory framework including safe bunkering protocols
• Design and equipment technology standardization
• Bunker storage capacity
• Crew training and certification

             Green methanol production                                                                                                  Green hydrogen production

 

Green methanol (sometimes referred to as bio methanol) is either generated by:

• Heating plant or other organic waste to create a gas that can then be converted into bio-methanol, or
• By combining green hydrogen and captured CO2 to produce e-methanol.

Green hydrogen, sometimes referred to as clean hydrogen, is produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using electricity generated by wind, solar or other renewable sources through electrolysis.

Green ammonia is formed by combining nitrogen from the air and green hydrogen through a process called Haber-Bosch after the German chemists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch more than a century ago. The process converts atmospheric nitrogen to ammonia by a reaction with hydrogen using a metal catalyst under high temperatures and pressures.

Green ammonia production

 

An assessment of how green a fuel is will require the combined measurement of the life cycle emissions generated during extraction, production, transportation, storage and consumption. This is often referred to as the “well to wake” measurement of emissions.

Clearly, there is a heavy dependence on sources of renewable energy in order to qualify for a green fuel ranking. The International Chamber of Shipping estimates that this will require up to 3,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of renewable electricity a year compared to the current global total of wind and solar electricity output  of about 3,444 TWh). In financial terms, it is estimated that around $2 trillion must be invested in order to decarbonise shipping, a number which seems certain to increase given that more than 60,000 ships will need to be converted or replaced by 2050.

The retrofit of older vessels is estimated to cost up to $15 million a ship meaning that many will need to be scrapped. For this reason, we are seeing the first generation of ships capable of burning methanol being delivered to container carriers while the previously mentioned first ammonia-ready vessel, Kriti Future, is already in service, albeit not yet burning ammonia. In the cruise industry, MSC cruises has notably ordered two hydrogen-ready vessels for delivery in 2028.

The International Energy Agency has bravely predicted that green ammonia will be the most widely used fuel in 2050 even though the IMO has yet to develop regulatory standards for either ammonia or hydrogen as a marine fuel. In terms of supply, more than 100 ports are offering methanol as a fuel but not yet green methanol unless by individual contractual arrangement.

The Green Methanol Institute anticipates that production capacity will reach 8 million tonnes a year by 2027 whereas the marine industry is expected to require 550 million tonnes annually by 2050 if fossil fuels are to be fully replaced. The challenges of building the infrastructure to enable and support this are truly staggering, a fact underlined by Lloyds Register in a recently released Engine Retrofit Report. The report warns that the task of converting thousands of vessels could be jeopardized by the limited number of repair yards currently capable of performing such conversions.

Given the many complexities, it seems clear that the collective marine industry has a huge task ahead if the Net Zero 2050 aspirations of regulatory are to be realized.

 

Feature Image courtesy: M.V. Kriti Future – credit to Nihon Shipyard